Big East Football Week #10 Preview

If there’s one thing we’ve learned this year about Big East football, it’s to expect the unexpected.

A week ago, many thought that the league race was starting to take shape. Pittsburgh was riding high, winning five in a row, and South Florida was right behind them. UConn was starting to sputter and Rutgers had one touchdown in their only win against an FBS opponent. But the league as we knew it disintegrated in Week 9 with three close games and a blowout no one saw coming.

It all started last Thursday night, when West Virginia used 31 unanswered second half points to soundly beat the Auburn Tigers at home. It was the first time this season that the Mountaineers resembled last year’s conference champion offensively, as Noel Devine rushed for 207 yards and the Mountaineers gained 445 yards of total offense.

On Saturday, things became even more bizarre. It started with UConn’s victory over Cincinnati. It wasn’t so much that the Huskies won, but how they did so. Facing a team which was 5-1 with a very efficient offense, UConn forced the Bearcats into six turnovers in a 40-16 victory.

Just hours later, Louisville showed again that on any given Saturday they can defeat anyone in this conference- as they beat South Florida 24-20 at home. The final and most surprising score of the day (not just in the Big East but in all of college football, mind you) came from Pittsburgh, where Rutgers quarterback Mike Teel threw six touchdown passes in a 54-34 victory over the Panthers. Not only did Teel accomplish the feat on just 14 completions, but he had only thrown three touchdown passes in Rutgers first seven games! Let me put it to you like this: Rutgers had two touchdown drives in its previous two games. Against Pittsburgh they had two touchdowns by the six minute mark of the first quarter!

Only in the Big East.

This week is similar to last, in that the schedule has three inter-conference match-ups, and an intriguing out of conference tilt- all beginning Thursday night. Let’s hope this week is just as entertaining.

(** Last week I went 1-3, but stand at 38-13 on the year).

South Florida Bulls (6-2, 1-2 Big East) @ Cincinnati Bearcats (5-2, 1-1 Big East)

Thursday, October 30 - 7:30 p.m. ESPN

It is a make-or-break game in the Queen City this Thursday evening, as no two teams in the Big East need a win as badly the South Florida Bulls and Cincinnati Bearcats.

In Tampa, we thought things were supposed to be different this year with South Florida. This was a team that started last season 6-0 and reached No. 2 in the national rankings, before losing three in a row and essentially playing their way out of the Big East conference race. They are essentially doing the same thing this year- sandwiching a win against Syracuse between a home loss to Pittsburgh and a defeat at Louisville. In both games the Bulls had a fourth quarter lead, but could not make the defensive stops when needed to pull out victory- a trait which has again de-railed their championship aspirations.

Cincinnati too is coming off a loss, and in desperate need of a win this week. In their trip to UConn Saturday, the Bearcats looked nothing like the efficient, high-scoring team we’ve come to expect from a Brian Kelly offense- as they went 0-13 on third down, and turned the ball over six times in defeat. Although the Bearcats actually lead at halftime, quarterback Tony Pike was unable to play the second half and his replacement Chazz Anderson struggled- completing only nine passes, while also being intercepted twice. It has yet to be determined who will start Thursday night for the Bearcats.

On the field, expect both teams to throw the ball around. Cincinnati coach Brian Kelly has made his name with the spread offense, so whether Pike or Anderson is in the pocket is irrelevant- the Bearcats are going to attack you through the air.

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The same is true at South Florida. We know Matt Grothe is going to be at quarterback, and he is going to throw the ball- Jesse Hester, Taurus Johnson and A.J. Love highlight the best receiving corps in the league. Whether or not the Bulls can move the ball on the ground, however, will be the difference in their ability to win the game. A week ago the Bulls rushed a total 8 yards against Louisville- 8 yards! Whether it is Mike Ford, Benjamin Williams or Grothe himself, someone needs to provide a ground attack for South Florida. The Bulls in-ability to run the ball has cost them in both losses, and nearly de-railed them against Kansas earlier as well.

Defensively, look for both defenses to implement a “bend but don’t break,” attack. For the Bearcats the key is to keep Grothe in the pocket. Other than the second half against Pittsburgh, South Florida has yet to consistently move the ball on the ground all year. However, if Grothe gets out of the pocket and can create plays with his feet, it makes the South Florida passing attack that much better.

The Bulls have a little easier chore defensively against the Bearcats- neither quarterback is expected to run much. For South Florida, the key against the Bearcats will be to do exactly what UConn did- keep the receivers in front of you. Cincinnati’s bread-and-butter is to hit you with slants and other short passes across the middle- while continuing to move the chains. If one of their receivers breaks a big play that’s great, but not what is expected. Although this the same spread offense used by teams like Texas Tech, it is different in that the Bearcats never really go for the “home-run.” Therefore the key is to keep the Bearcats from making first downs. It sounds simple enough, but if it was, Cincinnati wouldn’t have five wins already this year.

Most of the advantages in this game go to South Florida, but I’m going to take Cincinnati.

Looking back on the season so far, we’ve probably given South Florida more credit than they deserve.

Let’s take a quick peak at their resume. Yes they beat Kansas, but had to stage a giant second half comeback to make it happen. Before the Kansas game they needed overtime to beat Central Florida (currently 2-5) and scored just 17 points against Florida International (3-4). At the time we chalked both of those games up to letdown before and after the Kansas win, but let’s dig deeper. After winning convincingly at North Carolina State, the Bulls lost at home to Pittsburgh, beat Syracuse in a game which was tied at halftime and lost at Louisville. By my math, they’ve played a complete game against just one FBS opponent (NC State) and easily could have lost to both Kansas and Central Florida. This is a team that stands at 6-2, but could certainly be 4-4.

As for the Bearcats, they needed the loss to UConn to wake them up. Cincinnati isn’t as bad as they looked against the Huskies last week, but weren’t as good as they thought they were coming in either. Although this team may not be as good as we thought, they won’t have a performance like last week the rest of the season, and will show up Thursday ready to play.

The Big East doesn’t have a conference championship game, but this Thursday night match-up is essentially a playoff game. There is no way South Florida will win the league with three losses, and with back-to-back trips to West Virginia and Louisville, followed by a home game against Pittsburgh, Cincinnati desperately needs this win.

Cincinnati will win this game, as South Florida again proves itself to be the Clemson of the Big East- a team which is nice to look at, but doesn’t have the substance to back-up their talent.

Cincinnati 31 - South Florida 27

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West Virginia Mountaineers (5-2, 2-0 Big East) @ Connecticut Huskies (6-2, 2-1 Big East)

Saturday November 1- 12:00 p.m. ESPN Gameplan

What makes the West Virginia-UConn game so interesting is that not only is it a battle of last years conference co-champions, but both teams are coming off their best wins of the year.

In regard to West Virginia, I’m going to do something I haven’t done all year: give Bill Stewart a little credit. The much embattled first year coach did an excellent job a week ago, making second half adjustments and motivating his team- as the Mountaineers which trailed 17-3 at halftime scored 31 unanswered second half points to win 34-17. All the credit goes to Noel Devine for his 207 yard rushing game, but more needs to be given to the Mountaineers offensive line which repeatedly blew the Auburn front seven off the ball the entire second half. Although Pat White didn’t break any of his patented runs, he made enough plays with his arm to keep the defense honest- and off Devine’s back.

With all the talk about last week’s offensive output, everyone forgets how good the West Virginia defense played. Not only did they hold Auburn to just 260 yards of total offense, the Tigers only had 33 yards the entire second half. This is a unit which just does not get the credit that it rightfully deserves.

As for UConn, yes the score against Cincinnati looked nice last week, but the Huskies won’t get a more gift-wrapped win all season. The Bearcats turned the ball over six times in defeat, a Robert McClain interception leading directly to a touchdown, and the others leaving UConn with great field position the entire second half.

Although Donald Brown gets all the credit, don’t be fooled. Most of his yards last week came on just a few big runs. The real hero from Week 9 was third string quarterback Cody Endres. Looking at the stats doesn’t make his performance jump out at you- 18-42, 196 yards- but it was his calm and composure in the pocket which did. Endres never seemed phased, and when UConn needed just enough yardage to get a first down and keep the chains moving, the red-shirt freshman came through. Most importantly with UConn struggling the past few weeks with dumb mistakes, Endres didn’t turn the ball over once.

While the South Florida-Cincinnati game will feature two pass happy attacks, this one will be an old school, “grind-it-out,” running game. What makes it so interesting, is that while on the surface the two featured backs seem so different, they are actually quite the same. Devine is the much smaller, shiftier back- but never gets credit for the power which he packs on his 5’7 frame. Brown on the other hand, is a much more traditional between the tackles guy, but everyone seems to forget just how fast the red-shirt junior actually is when he gets into the open field. Regardless, both defenses will have their hands full this weekend.

For those expecting an encore of last years 66-21 West Virginia win, don’t. I said it last week, and I’ll say it again UConn is a much different team at home.

The Huskies have used the pain of defeat from last year to motivate them this season. Also, I’m not as concerned as others if Zach Frazer is unable to play and the Huskies need to go back to Endres at quarterback. Not only was the rookie cool and composed last week, but sources inside the UConn program have indicated that Endres was ahead of Frazer in practices- but that the Huskies staff went with Frazer because he was more experienced.

It will be a tight game, but I’m going to take West Virginia by a hair. I’m not ready just yet to jump on their bandwagon- quite honestly they’ve played one half of “ West Virginia football,” all year. That being said, I think this is a game where the leadership at West Virginia- mainly Pat White- refuses to let the Mountaineers lose. They know that the easy part of their schedule is over. If they lose this week, West Virginia will have a very tough path back to another Big East championship.

The Mountaineers won’t put up 66 points, but UConn won’t force six turnovers this week either.

West Virginia moves to 3-0 in the Big East, and become the clear conference favorite.

West Virginia 27 - UConn 21

Pittsburgh Panthers (5-2, 2-1 Big East) @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5-2)

Saturday November 1- 2:30 p.m. NBC

So we thought we were past this point with Pittsburgh. We thought that the days of the Panthers not showing up against teams they should beat were over. And then Saturday happened.

Pittsburgh lost to Rutgers. On the surface, that certainly doesn’t seem so terrible- Rutgers did of course beat UConn just a week earlier. But it is how the Panthers lost that is just so shocking (** authors note: shocking isn’t the right word. There is no right word in entire English language to describe how incredibly unpredictable the final outcome of the Pittsburgh-Rutgers was).

The Panthers gave up 442 yards of total offense and 54 points to one of the statistically worst offenses in all of FBS football. Quarterback Mike Teel- who’d thrown three touchdowns all season- threw for six touchdowns, on only 14 completions! The 361 yards that the senior threw for was roughly a quarter of his yardage through his first seven games. His passer rating was over 295. And coming into the game Teel’s longest completion of the season had been 41 yards. He had two 60 yard or more touchdown passes- in the first quarter. This from an offense which had scored just two touchdowns in the previous two games.

Despite the defensive miscues, the Pittsburgh offense was actually quite efficient. The unit totaled 486 yards and LeSean McCoy was again outstanding- rushing for two touchdowns and 146 yards. Quarterback Bill Stull- who was just hitting his stride as a passer- was also efficient, but unfortunately had to leave the game with a concussion and will not be playing against the Irish (luckily it was nothing more than a concussion. When the play happened, it looked to be much more serious).

If the Panthers want to win on Saturday, their defense which had been playing so well coming into the Rutgers game must bounce back. One of the great things about watching college football is seeing players and teams mature. That is absolutely the case this year at Notre Dame- where the hapless group that went 3-9 a year ago has looks so different and may be coming off its best game of the season. Sophomore Jimmy Clausen appears to be much more comfortable in the pocket, and has already thrown 15 touchdown passes. It must be noted that he also has nine interceptions on the year.

However improved they are though, Notre Dame has still yet to beat a team with a winning record. Looking at their resume, their best win appears to be against a 4-4 Stanford team- and that was by only a touchdown. Their other victories have come over San Diego State, Michigan, Purdue and Washington- whose combined record is 5-26 (and the Irish still have Syracuse on the schedule- yikes).

As for their losses, Michigan State and North Carolina are both commendable defeats. However, when I look at MSU in particular, they seem to have an awful lot in common with Pittsburgh. Both are power running teams with backs- Javon Ringer at MSU and McCoy for Pittsburgh- who are as good as any in the nation (Ringer had 201 yards rushing against the Irish). Both rely on quarterbacks to make just enough plays to keep defenses honest. Because of that, I think that the loss of Stull doesn’t hurt Pittsburgh nearly as bad as it would for other teams, or against other opponents.

I know the game is at Notre Dame, but I’m taking Pittsburgh. The Panthers have a habit of responding well to devastating losses (winning five in a row after their season opening defeat), and are itching to get back so much of the credibility they lost a week ago. This game is a nationally televised game, against a “name opponent,” so I look for the Panthers to show up ready to play.

Notre Dame is a good team, but just catching Pittsburgh at the wrong time. I expect McCoy- who loves the big stage- to have the best game of his career. It will lead Pittsburgh to its best game of the season, and a win.

Pittsburgh 31 - Notre Dame 20

Louisville Cardinals (5-2, 1-1 Big East) @ Syracuse Orange (1-6, 0-3 Big East)

Saturday November 1 - 7:00 p.m. ESPN U

There might not be a game which sticks out more both for Louisville and Syracuse than their match-up from a year ago.

The Cardinals were still a ranked team, and despite coming off a loss to Kentucky, still thought they could play for a National Championship and certainly a Big East title.

Louisville lost that day, and in a lot of ways lost its season. Although they were only 2-2 at the time, the game was the one which made it clear that the transition from Bobby Petrino to Steve Kragthorpe wasn’t going to be as smooth as everyone expected. It also ended up being Syracuse’s only Big East win on the year.

Flash forward to the match-up in 2008. Louisville is coming off arguably the most important win in the Kragthorpe era- 24-20 at South Florida last week- and appears to have finally turned a corner under the second year coach. Syracuse unfortunately has appeared to have hit rock bottom as a program, and the clock is ticking on the Greg Robinson era.

For the Cardinals, the win was exactly what Louisville fans have been waiting for. Despite a huge game from South Florida quarterback Matt Grothe and trailing in the fourth quarter, several Cardinals stepped up and made big plays in the come from behind win. Rather than wilting like they would have a year ago, the defense stepped up and made several big plays down the stretch (two sacks and a forced punt and an interception on South Florida’s last two possessions), and the offense did just enough to win.

This week the Cardinals take on a Syracuse team which at this point has little to play for but their own pride, and the honor of their coach.

Give Syracuse credit. They are outmanned virtually every game, and have become the butt of joke after joke nationwide. The Carrier Dome is virtually a ghost town on game day, and to top everything off, it was reported during their bye week that their administration hired a search firm to hire a new head coach.

But despite all this, Syracuse keeps pushing on. They’ve played all three of their conference opponents tough- leading in the second half against Pittsburgh, down by a score in the fourth quarter at West Virginia and tied at halftime against South Florida- but have yet to put it all together.

Syracuse will win a Big East game by the end of this season, but it won’t be this week.

Louisville simply has too many weapons on offense for the Orange to compete. Although neither Victor Anderson nor Brock Bolen were particularly effective against South Florida, each can and have gone for over 100 yards in a game. Bilal Powell complements both nicely. And in an up-and-down season for Hunter Cantwell, the senior is again up- after throwing for 212 yards and a two touchdowns against the Bulls.

When you add the talent disparity to the anger and resentment from a year ago, Louisville seems like the right pick. Also, I have to imagine that for the first time all year the Cardinals really know that they have as good of a chance as anyone to win this conference. Another loss to Syracuse would all but end those hopes, and add a black eye that no one on this roster wants.

In typical Syracuse fashion the game will stay close early, but the Orange just don’t have the speed and athleticism to match-up with their opponent. Louisville wins again, as they heads into the meat of their schedule.

Louisville 34 - Syracuse 13

By Aaron Torres
BigEast-fans.com Staff Writer