Big East Football Week #13 Preview

With over three full months of Big East football now in the books, it is time to look ahead to the final few weeks, where a conference champion will be decided.

Although, Week 12 didn’t have the “glamour,” that this weekend will promise, it did further solidify the fate of some conference teams.

In the pouring rain at Papa John’s Stadium, Cincinnati again showed the heart of a champion, defeating Louisville 28-20. The Bearcats needed some spot relief work from Dustin Grutza, after starting quarterback Tony Pike got hurt, but were able to hold off Louisville, and win their first Keg O’ Nails trophy since 2002.

In Tampa, Rutgers extended their win streak to four games in a row, defeating the once-again disappointing South Florida Bulls. While the Scarlet Knights may be the hottest team in college football, South Florida might be its most under-achieving. After starting the year 5-0, they have now lost four of five, and are in danger of missing the postseason all together.

And finally at the Carrier Dome in Syracuse, we found that as much as things change in the conference, they also sometimes stay the same. The Orange lost again, this time to UConn on Senior Day, the first Connecticut win at Syracuse in program history. The loss was the final nail in coach Greg Robinson’s coffin, as he was fired Sunday afternoon. Robinson will coach Syracuse’s final two games.

Now to this weekend. All eight Big East teams are in action, with two stepping out of conference to face familiar opponents. However, the game everyone is talking about is Saturday night, when the top two teams in the conference square off, as the Pittsburgh Panthers travel to Cincinnati, to take on Brian Kelly’s first place Bearcats squad.

There are four other big games as well this weekend, so lets get to the preview.

(Last week’s picks were 3-0, to improve to 46-15 on the year)

Army Black Knights (3-7) @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights (5-5, 4-2 Big East):

Saturday November 22- 12:00 p.m. ESPN Gameplan

It will be a Knightly battle worthy of your local Renaissance Fair, as the Army Black Knights travel to New Brunswick this weekend to take on the Scarlet Knights of Rutgers.

Don’t let the 5-5 record fool you there is no hotter team in all of college football than Rutgers.

After stumbling to a 1-5 start, the Scarlet Knights have won four in a row, all in conference, and three against bowl eligible teams. It has certainly been a tale of two seasons for Rutgers, and also the tale of two offenses.

While Rutgers struggled to move the ball early, they have been scoring at will against opponents as of late. And the biggest difference has been the ability of quarterback Mike Teel to spread the ball around.

Early in the season, Teel was much maligned, and appeared to be forcing his passes. However, during the four game winning streak, he has read his progressions, often going to the second or third receiver- and it is beginning to pay dividends.

Look at the results: senior Tiquan Underwood, who had 14 catches his first six games, has 15 in his last four games, including his first two touchdowns of the year. Diminutive running back/wide receiver Tim Brown- who was used with little frequency early in the season- has 10 catches in the four game winning streak, including four for 132 yards and two touchdowns against Pittsburgh. And junior Kenny Britt who has been a star all season, has taken his game to another level, as he’s averaged 132 yards per game during the win streak, including an eight catch, 173 yard performance a week ago at South Florida. Maybe the most impressive has been Teel, who threw only three touchdowns through the first six games, but has tallied 12 in the last four. If the Big East conference had a “Most Improved Player,” award, Teel would win it running away.

When Army comes to New Brunswick this weekend, look for the Black Knights to run the ball, and run it often. Don’t believe me? Army is seventh in the nation in rushing offense, averaging 257 yards per game. As for their pass offense, it’s dead last in FCS football, as they average just over 50 yards per game through the air. Look for fullback Collin Mooney to do the majority of the heavy lifting for Army. The senior has rushed for over 1100 yards on the season, including 207 in last week’s loss at Rice.

What does all this mean for Rutgers defense? Their front seven better come to play.

Although the Scarlet Knights struggled against better passing teams early in the year ( Fresno State, North Carolina), they have been quite successful against opponents which try to run the ball. Donald Brown of UConn was held to six yards in the second half against Rutgers, West Virginia’s Noel Devine and Pat White were each held under 60 yards, and Syracuse’s Curtis Brinkley- who had five consecutive 100 plus rushing games coming into his match-up with Rutgers- was held to 68 in a loss.

Because of that strong run defense, look for Rutgers to win this game. Many will point to the Scarlet Knights early season loss to Navy- a team very similar to Army- but look beyond that. This is a much different Rutgers team than the one that traveled to Annapolis in September. The defense is playing at another level, and should put eight or nine men in the box to try and limit the Black Knights running attack.

As for the offense, they can do no wrong as of late. Not only have Teel and the receiving corps been great, but last week Rutgers got 98 yards on the ground from Joe Martinek, and 143 the week before from Kordell Young. While there may be no bona-fide workhorse, the way that Ray Rice was the last few seasons at Rutgers, they now have options, and because of it, may be a bit more dangerous because of it.

Look for Rutgers to improve to 6-5, and somehow become bowl eligible by the time this one is done. It’s been a long, bizarre year on the banks of the old Raritan. But Rutgers gets the win, and with it, another postseason berth.

Rutgers 37 - Army 17

West Virginia Mountaineers (6-3, 3-1 Big East) @ Louisville Cardinals (1-4, 5-5 Big East)

Saturday, November 22- 12:00 p.m. ESPN

Remember the last time West Virginia visited Papa John’s Stadium?

It was the fall of 2006, and both they and Louisville were ranked in the top 5, battling for the Big East title, and a potential National Championship game berth. The Mountaineers lost that day, and Louisville was the toast of college football- until a week later when they went to Rutgers and lost. While the stakes are certainly different in this one, West Virginia can still back-door their way to another Big East title, but have a virtual must win at Louisville, while the Cardinals are doing anything they can to get some positive momentum going.

For Louisville to win this game, they must re-establish the run game. The Cardinals were best early in the season, when they relied on the ground attack to take the load off quarterback Hunter Cantwell’s shoulders. However, in the last two games, Louisville’s running game has been dormant, averaging only about 115 yards in each contest. Not coincidentally, the Cardinals have lost all three games. Victor Anderson, who was so good early in the season (four games of 100 or more yards in Louisville’s first seven contests) has become somewhat of an afterthought in this offense, as a week ago he had 60 yards, but on only 13 carries. Although Anderson is small, more of the offense needs to be placed on his shoulders.

As for the Mountaineers, it’s been somewhat of a disappointing season as well in Morgantown. Entering the year West Virginia was a consensus top 10 team, but after two early season losses were out the National Championship hunt before the calendar turned to October. They did win five in a row after the two losses, and despite a defeat against Cincinnati two weeks ago can still win the Big East conference if they win out and the Bearcats lose one of their last two games.

The best chance for West Virginia to win Saturday is to keep Louisville on their toes, by keeping their offense balanced. At times this season, West Virginia has relied too much on the pass (a loss at East Carolina), while in others too much on the run (loss at Colorado). The Mountaineers seem to play their best when they balance both the pass and the run, as they did against Auburn and UConn in two of their earlier wins. While Pat White isn’t quite the runner he’s been in years past (blame much of that on the scheme, not the player), he is still a threat to break a long run on any play, as are running back Noel Devine, and wide receiver Jock Sanders, who also gets carries out of the backfield.

All this adds up to a tough Louisville run defense, which currently is eighth in the country giving up just 95 yards per game.

Although the defense may have their best game of the season, I still look for West Virginia to win.

There is no way to describe Louisville’s offense the last couple weeks other than stagnant. With the disappearance of the run game, it has put additional pressure on quarterback Hunter Cantwell. The senior has struggled mightily all season (part isn’t his fault, as his best receiving threats Scott Long and Trent Guy have both missed significant time), throwing 12 interceptions and getting sacked 15 times. Louisville is currently last in the Big East with 23 turnovers, stalling promising drives and in some cases costing the Cardinals games.

As for West Virginia, while their offense has been far from the well-oiled machine we’ve seen in years past, the defense has been what’s won the Mountaineers games. Even in their loss to Cincinnati, West Virginia held the Bearcats to just 260 yards of total offense, and 178 yards passing, almost 100 below their average.

While this match-up may not have the excitement and build-up that’s it has had in years past, West Virginia and Louisville always play entertaining football. It will be a close one early, but the Mountaineers- as they seem to do every game- will open the second half with a big push and close out Louisville on Senior Day at Papa John’s Stadium.

This group of Cardinals has had many good memories over their four or five years, but the last home game will be one to forget.

West Virginia 31 - Louisville 20

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Syracuse Orange (2-8, 1-5 Big East) @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-4)

Saturday, November 22- 2:30 p.m. NBC

It took a lot of boos, losses and empty chairs at the Carrier Dome, but the Greg Robinson era is finally over at Syracuse- sort of.

The fourth year coach, who never won more than four games in a season was fired last Sunday, after another loss- this one 39-14 to Connecticut. Robinson will be allowed to coach Syracuse’s last two games, the first of which comes at Notre Dame this weekend.

While the Irish certainly aren’t the college football powerhouse they once were, they are much improved from a year ago. After going 3-9 in 2007, the Irish are 6-4 this year and coming off an emotional win against Navy. It will be Senior Day at Notre Dame Stadium, and for a class which has seen the benefits and drawbacks of playing for college football’s most recognizable program, it will no doubt be emotional.

The Irish offense is led by Jimmy Clausen, who at times looks like the great quarterbacks he’s been compared to, while also looking like the true sophomore that he is at other points. Syracuse’s best chance at keeping Notre Dame off the scoreboard is to put pressure on Clausen, who has been known- like many other young quarterbacks- to force passes in the face of a good pass rush. While Syracuse’s front seven isn’t exactly the 1985 Chicago Bears, just getting a hand in Clausen’s face and throwing his timing off could rattle the second year starter. Notre Dame doesn’t have much of a running game to speak of, as Armando Allen is their top back, but has not rushed for more than 73 yards in any game since a September 27 win against Purdue.

Offensively, the Orange will rely heavily on senior Curtis Brinkley. While the rest of the team has been woefully in-consistent, Brinkley has been a lone bright spot, last week becoming the eighth Syracuse player to rush for over 1000 yards in a season. Notre Dame’s defense has experienced difficulty with good backs, as Michigan State’s Javon Ringer, Pittsburgh’s LeSean McCoy and Boston College’s Montel Harris have all rushed for over 100 yards against the Irish.

As good as Brinkley has been, for the Orange to pull the upset, they’ll need to- for the first time all season- find some consistency at quarterback. Andrew Robinson opened the season there, but was replaced shortly thereafter by Cam Dantley. The two have flip-flopped the last two games, neither with sparkling results. Only one Syracuse quarterback- Dantley against West Virginia- has thrown for over 200 yards in a game.

No matter how you crunch the numbers, or break down the film, it doesn’t look promising for Syracuse. Notre Dame will never be as good as the pundits make them out to be, but in their last home game of the season, they just aren’t losing this one.

Clausen may be hot early, but will struggle down the stretch. However, if Notre Dame has a comfortable lead, it won’t matter much as they can simply pound the running game against an overmatched Syracuse front seven.

Give the Orange credit for showing up each week, and doing their best to win. Robinson will have his group ready in their second to last game together. Like so many other games during his tenure it won’t matter much, as Syracuse will simply be out-manned at virtually every position on the field.

Notre Dame wins, as it will be another loss for the men in Orange.

Notre Dame 31 - Syracuse 13

#20 Pittsburgh Panthers (7-2, 3-1 Big East) @ #19 Cincinnati Bearcats (8-2, 4-1 Big East)

Saturday November 22- 7:15 p.m. ESPN2

Although the Big East is one of three BCS conferences that doesn’t have a championship game, the match-up Saturday between the Pittsburgh Panthers and Cincinnati Bearcats could end up deciding the league title.

For Cincinnati, it truly has been a storybook season. Despite constant fluctuation at the quarterback position (three different quarterbacks have started, with five taking game snaps), the Bearcats continue to find ways to defy the odds and win football games. Coach Brian Kelly deserves recognition not only within the conference, but nationally for coach of the year honors, as the Bearcats are in prime position to win the conference if they can pull out the win against Pittsburgh Saturday.

As for the Panthers, although they are tied with Cincinnati for first in conference, their road to the top has been quite different. Coming into the season with lofty expectations, Pittsburgh floundered in their opening game, losing to Bowling Green 27-17. Since then, the Panthers have won seven of eight, including a gutty four overtime win at Notre Dame three weeks ago, and their most dominating victory of the season- against Louisville on November 8. Pittsburgh is rested coming off a bye in Week 12.

What is so interesting about this match-up is that while these are two of the Big East’s best offenses, each team scores their points in completely different ways.

When Cincinnati has the ball, they’ll likely line up in a four or five wide receiver set with their quarterback (whoever it is on that given snap) out of the shotgun. Seeing more than one running back in the backfield is akin to seeing Bigfoot wandering around Nippert Stadium: it isn’t going to happen.

The Bearcats rack up 253 yards a game through the air, tops in the Big East and 20 th nationally. Both Dominick Goodman and Mardy Gilyard are having All-Big East type seasons, as each are closing in on 50 catches, and could top the 1000 yard mark by the end of the year. Running backs Jacob Ramsey and John Goebel are nice diversions to the pass game out of the backfield, but neither would be considered a “featured,” back (no Cincinnati running back has topped 100 yards this year).

As much as Cincinnati likes to throw the ball, Pittsburgh just as much prefers to run it. The Panthers average over 150 yards a game on the ground, led by running back LeSean McCoy. The sophomore has rushed for over 1000 yards on the season, including a stretch of at least five straight games of at least 100 yards.

However, like a true championship team, Pittsburgh proved in its last win that they can beat you in several different ways. Against Louisville in Week 11, McCoy had the worst game of his career- rushing for only 39 yards. But the Panthers defense and special teams stepped up, creating five turnovers, and quarterback Bill Stull threw for 216 yards in the win. While the final score was impressive, the way in which the Panthers won- essentially without the services of McCoy- was even more impressive.

With both offenses clicking, and both defenses playing well, this game will come down to limiting mistakes, and the intangibles. Because of it, I like Cincinnati.

There is no better word to describe this Bearcats team other than resilient. This group seems unfazed by anything or anyone, playing its best when everyone counts them out.

Over the last two weeks the Bearcats have had to go into two tough venues- Milan-Puskar Stadium in Morgantown, W.Va., and Louisville’s Papa John’s Stadium- and won two great games. It didn’t matter whether there were injuries at quarterback, poor weather conditions or unruly fans, the Bearcats always prevailed. Against West Virginia, Cincinnati blew a 13 point lead in the final 1:11 and still pulled out a victory! The resiliency of this team is like few we’ve seen in college football this year. Just when we’re ready to count out the Bearcats, they always seem to pull another rabbit out of their hat, or helmets.

Sometimes in college football, certain teams just have “it.” You can’t explain exactly what “it,” is, but it seems that no matter the circumstance or situation, you simply believe that a team will find a way to get a win. It doesn’t matter the yardage, distance, down or score, certain teams just find ways to win. LSU did this constantly last year on their way to a National Championship, as did Texas and Vince Young in 2005. While Cincinnati won’t be playing for a National Championship, watching them, there is that same type of feel.

There won’t be anything that Pittsburgh does right or wrong on Saturday night, they’re just playing the wrong team at the wrong time. Cincinnati wins this game, and has only Syracuse left between them and a Big East championship.

Cincinnati 27 - Pittsburgh 14

Connecticut Huskies (7-3, 3-2 Big East) @ South Florida Bulls (6-4, 1-4 Big East)

Sunday, November 23 - 8:30 p.m. ESPN

In this era of anytime, anywhere, television dictated college football, we get a rare Sunday night Big East clash when the South Florida Bulls host the UConn Huskies.

With all the talk of Syracuse’s ineptitude this season, few have taken notice of just how bad South Florida has been since entering Big East play.

The Bulls started out the year 5-0, taking on and beating up any takers from outside the Big East. But South Florida has been a completely different team since Big East play began, limping to a 1-4 mark, with the lone win over Syracuse, a game which was tied at halftime. The Bulls may have hit rock bottom last Saturday, as they turned the ball over six times, gift-wrapping a 49-16 win for Rutgers.

While Big East fans are trying hard to forget the play of South Florida, UConn has become sort of just, forgotten. The Huskies have played only one game since the first of November, a 39-14 pounding of Syracuse which was witnessed in person by more popcorn vendors at the Carrier Dome than fans. The game got UConn back to its winning ways (it had lost three of its previous four), but more importantly marked the healthy return of quarterback Tyler Lorenzen. While Lorenzen may not have the God-given arm-strength of his two replacements Cody Endres and Zach Frazer, he is much more experienced in the pocket, and the Huskies looked a lot more comfortable with the fifth-year senior under center.

Although South Florida quarterback Matt Grothe is expected to play, we might not know for sure until game-time. The red-shirt junior was seen at practice earlier in the week with a boot on his ankle. Despite his lack-luster play of late (eight interceptions in the last three games), a healthy Grothe is still South Florida’s best chance to win. The Bulls still lead the Big East in total offense (416 yards/game) and a big part of that is Grothe. Not only has he thrown for over 2300 yards this season, he is also South Florida’s leading rusher.

As for UConn, it doesn’t matter who is under center, the ball will be in the hands of Donald Brown. The nations leading rusher- with over 153 yards per game- Brown has been Connecticut’s one consistency, with the constant shuffling at the quarterback position. With Lorenzen again healthy, look for the Huskies to go back to the short and intermediate passing game, including receivers Ellis Gaulden, D.J. Hernandez and Brown. True freshman Jordan Todman has also been a revelation for the Huskies offense, as he is averaging over six yards a carry and broke a 50 yard run against Syracuse.

UConn’s defense is always up for a tough test, and I expect them to be ready for South Florida. Cincinnati and Rutgers have seemed to expose the Bulls offense for its deficiencies- essentially there is no true running threat behind Grothe. Look for UConn to get a strong pass-rush, led by Cody Brown (nine sacks), forcing Grothe (assuming he plays) into quick throws. More importantly for the Huskies, they simply need to get a hand in the face of the six-foot quarterback, as we’ve seen in recent weeks that even if you can’t get to Grothe, you can often throw off his timing and rhythm by simply putting a hand up

As for South Florida’s defense, you certainly can’t pin all 49 points from a week ago on them- especially when your offense turns the ball over six times. But at the same time, this group hasn’t seemed to have the relentless attacking style which has made them so successful, at least since the first possession of the Pittsburgh game (all the way back on the first weekend of October). Quarterbacks, whether they have been Bill Stull at Pittsburgh, Hunter Cantwell at Louisville or Rutgers Mike Teel have had plenty of time to throw, and have taken advantage of the Bulls in-experienced secondary. UConn will pass the ball less than the rest of those teams, so the score should stay low.

If South Florida is to win one of their next two games this would be it. They’re playing a team which will not attack them relentlessly through the air the way Rutgers and Cincinnati have in previous weeks, which should allow the Bulls to stay close.

Despite it, I haven’t picked South Florida once since the Syracuse game, and I’m not going to start now. This is a team that seems to have given up on itself and simply wants their season to be over. There was never a sense of urgency or anger during the Rutgers game, and even though the players say all the right things during the week, never show up on Saturdays.

UConn on the other hand rarely talks to the media, as per Randy Edsall’s strict rules. However, they do their talking with their helmets and pads between the hashes when it matters. This is a team which rarely loses when favored, which they will be Sunday night.

South Florida has the talent to pull the upset, but lacks the heart to do so. Take the Huskies, as the Bulls continue to mark the days on the calendar until the season is over.

Connecticut 23 - South Florida 18

By Aaron Torres
BigEast-fans.com Staff Writer