Big East Football Week #4 Preview

It took a quarter of the season to get going, but the Big East has finally earned some credibility.

This past weekend, the Big East proved that at least some of its teams could hang with the big boys. South Florida’s 37-34, last second victory over Kansas was one of this season’s most exciting, and UConn’s 45-10 win against Virginia one of it’s most dominant.

All eyes will again be on the Big East in Week 4, as the conference has a national television spotlight on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday- with Louisville, West Virginia and UConn all facing Big XII foes on those nights. Win those games, and the pressure will be off the conference to prove its worth to the national college football media. Lose, and there will again be talk of this conference as being the most inferior.

We also get to see if a week off has helped Pitt and Cincinnati, as they both face challenges at home. And of course there is Syracuse which appears to have its best chance of the season to win a game with a winless FCS Northeastern team coming to the Carrier Dome.

(** For the record my picks were 3-1 last week, as only Rutgers lost. For those of you who watched the game, the loss wasn’t nearly as embarrassing for my overall record as it was for the Scarlet Knights. My record on the year improved to 9-4.)

Now on to this week’s pick:

Kansas State 2-0 (0-0 Big XII) @ Louisville Cardinals 1-1 (0-0 Big East)

Wednesday, September 17- 8:00 p.m. ESPN 2

In a rare Wednesday night game, the Louisville Cardinals welcome Josh Freeman and the Kansas State Wildcats to Papa John’s Stadium.

As with many teams at this point into the season, no one is quite sure what to make of the Wildcats. The good news is that they’re 2-0 with two dominating performance. The bad news of course is that the wins were against North Texas and Montana State.

Kansas State is lead by Freeman- a strong-armed quarterback most believe will someday be a first round NFL draft pick. The 6’6 junior has thrown for 520 yards and five touchdowns, and rushed for another four in the Wildcats first two games. Their running game is lead by Keithen Valentine, a player who entered the program as a walk-on, but has moved his way into the starting running back position.

Kansas State will face a tough test in their first road game, playing against a Louisville squad which is also looking for its identity.

Clearly, Louisville’s season opening 27-2 loss to Kentucky wasn’t the way that Steve Kragthorpe wanted to start his second year as head coach.

But let’s also look at things positively.

The Cardinals came out and took care of Week 2 opponent Tennessee Tech, winning 51-10. Hunter Cantwell looked much like the quarterback we expected, throwing for 203 yards and two touchdowns with running back Victor Anderson rushing for 114 yards. And a defense that gave up so many big plays a year ago has held its opponents to just 193 yards per game. It was against two weaker opponents, but remember in the Kentucky game most of the Wildcats scores came in close range after Louisville’s offense turned the ball over.

It’s hard to see Louisville winning this game, even though the Cardinals are at home. Freeman will be the most talented passer Louisville has seen all year, not exactly what the Cardinals need with so many new starters on defense.

Offensively I expect to see a better performance from Cantwell than he turned out against Kentucky, but the K-State passing game has also vastly improved. It didn’t help Cantwell in the opening game that a green offensive line couldn’t open holes for any of the running backs.

Louisville will improve as the year goes on, but its hard to envision them scoring enough points to keep up with the Wildcats.

Kansas State 28 - Louisville 10

#24 West Virginia Mountaineers 1-1 (0-0 Big East) @ Colorado Buffaloes 2-0 (0-0 Big XII)

Thursday, September 18- 8:30 p.m. ESPN

It took only two weeks to undo the idea of Pat White as a pocket passer.

New West Virginia coach Bill Stewart claimed all off-season that White- one of the most electric running threats in college football- would remain in the pocket this season. But after a 24-3 dismembering by East Carolina, the first year coach changed his tune, re-iterating during last week’s bye that the Mountaineers will return primarily to the ground game that led the school to two BCS bowls in the last three years.

And with the return to the ground game, welcome to the college football spotlight Will Johnson.

Most Mountaineers fans- let alone college football fans- are not familiar with Johnson, but he may be the key to the Mountaineers remaining a threat to win the Big East. The former tight end now takes over at fullback, a position which is key to West Virginia’s option offense, and a position that was never filled after Owen Schmitt graduated a year ago.

The Mountaineers will unveil their new, old offense in one of the toughest venues in college football- Folsom Field, on the campus of Colorado University.

Surprisingly, it is Colorado and not West Virginia entering this game with a 2-0 record. The Buffaloes are led by Cody Hawkins- coach Dan Hawkins son- who has thrown for four touchdowns on the young season. But the player everyone has been watching early in the season is Darrell Scott, a running back who was one of the most of the most highly recruited high school players a year ago.

Defensively, it is tough to gauge the Buffaloes. On paper, Colorado looks strong, featuring four seniors and three juniors in the front seven. However, in actual games, the unit has been less impressive, giving up an average of 304 yards including 350 to I-AA Eastern Washington.

Believe it or not, I’m more confident in the Mountaineers coming off their loss than I was their Week 1 win. Because of the loss, West Virginia had to look in the mirror and figure out what they actually are- a great running team- a ditch the other stuff.

For the first time since last year’s Fiesta Bowl, I expect West Virginia to look like, well, West Virginia. They’re playing on the road, and the Buffaloes will score their points. But West Virginia will win this game, with a score that’s tighter than the play on the field.

West Virginia 34 - Colorado 27

Baylor Bears 2-1 (0-0 Big XII) @ Connecticut Huskies 3-0 (0-0 Big East)

Friday, September 19 - 8 p.m. ESPN

UConn’s offense was all the talk in last Saturday’s 45-10 victory over Virginia. In Week 4 against Baylor, their defense will be key.

Against the Cavaliers, the Huskies looked every bit the Big East co-champions of a year ago. Tyler Lorenzen returned to his 2007 form, completing his first 11 passes, on his way to a 13-15 day, throwing for 124 yards. And Donald Brown, who has arguably been the conferences offensive MVP this season had his second 200 yard rushing game in as many weeks- this one 206 yards on only 20 carries.

The Huskies look to go 4-0 against a Baylor squad with the best player most college football fans have never heard of.

Robert Griffin leads the Bears into Rentschler Field Friday night, and is just starting to get noticed by the national media. The true freshman, blessed with world-class sprinters speed, lines up at quarterback, and in his first two starts has been nothing short of stunning. In last week’s win over Washington State, Griffin set a Big XII rushing record with an average of 19.7 yards per carry, totaling 217 yards on the ground. He also threw for 129. Keep in mind the Bears were playing a jet-lagged Washington State squad- but this is the Big XII- home of Adrian Peterson, Vince Young and Cedric Benson in recent years. Those are some pretty good runners, making Griffin’s credentials even more impressive.

He will be going against a much better defense this week, however. The Huskies feature speed all over the field, including cornerback Darius Butler who will be playing on Sundays next fall, and linebackers Scott Lutrus and Lawrence Wilson- both of which earned Freshman All-American honors a year ago.

Although everyone will be curious as to how the Huskies contain Griffin, their offense will be the best defense. If UConn- led by Brown- can keep moving the chains and chewing up clock, there will be little the Baylor defense can do.

With Big East play only a week away, and coming off a dominating win, the Huskies must not look ahead. They have the talent to beat the Bears, but if they let Griffin run wild, it will be interesting.

Randy Edsall never lets his teams look ahead, and the Huskies will be ready. Griffin will get his yards, but his supporting cast won’t do enough. UConn heads into Big East play 4-0.

UConn 31 - Baylor 23

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Iowa Hawkeyes 3-0 (0-0 Big 10) @ Pittsburgh Panthers 1-1 (0-0 Big East)

Saturday, September 20- 12 p.m. ESPN 2

For the Pittsburgh Panthers it is put up or shut up time.

The team which came into the pre-season with so much hype has a chance to either justify that billing or prove this is just another Pitt team that doesn’t show up on game day when they take on the Iowa Hawkeyes Saturday at Heinz Field.

Iowa comes in at 3-0, but like so many teams this time of year we really don’t know much about them. In those three games, the Hawkeyes have outscored their opposition 105-8, and have yet to yield a touchdown. But they have also played Florida International, Kent State and Iowa State. And in their game against ISU- likely the worst team in the Big XII- the Hawkeyes had just 244 yards of total offense, and needed a late game punt return for a touchdown to seal the victory.

To beat the Hawkeyes, the key for Pittsburgh will be to stop the running game. Junior Shonn Greene has been spectacular this season, averaging 117 yards per game on the ground. His offensive line is massive- averaging 6’5 and 296 pounds. Quarterback however is much more of a question mark as Jake Christensen and Ricky Stanzi have flip-flopped at the position. Stanzi entered the Iowa State game as the clear-cut number one, but after the game coach Kirk Ferentz said that either could start against the Panthers.

As for Pittsburgh, they need to keep the good times rolling with running back LeSean McCoy. The sophomore who was unstoppable a year ago re-gained his strong form against Buffalo in Week 2, after struggling in the Panthers opener. Quarterback Bill Stull was also much more improved in the second game, going 22 for 33 and throwing for 241 yards.

Of all the Big East’s games in Week 4, this may be the toughest to pick. On paper it is so easy to fall in love with Pitt- but when you actually watch them on game day you’re left scratching your head.

Because of this, there are still simply too many questions to pick the Panthers.

For example, we all know McCoy is key to the Pittsburgh offense, but if he can’t find holes against Bowling Green (which has lost its two games since playing Pitt), how is he going to run against a defensive front featuring Mitch King and Matt Kroul- two fourth-year starters?

And what about Stull? Will we see the Week 2 starter who was poised in the pocket, leading late game scoring drives? Or the deer in headlights in Week 1 who couldn’t complete a pass when the Panthers needed him to down the stretch?

On defense, I know the Panthers front seven has been great against the run, but it certainly hasn’t seen a line with this much size and strength.

These are the swing games that Pittsburgh has lost in the past under Dave Wannstedt. For Panthers fans, let’s hope history doesn’t repeat itself.

Iowa 30 - Pittsburgh 24

Northeastern Huskies 0-2 (0-0 CAA) @ Syracuse Orange 0-3 (0-0 Big East)

Saturday, September 20- 3:30 p.m.

Here it is Syracuse fans. Your best, and likely only shot at the thrill of victory this season. It comes in the form of the Northeastern Huskies, an FCS team which travels to the Carrier Dome Saturday afternoon.

These two lightweights come into the game with a combined record of 0-5, and there is little reason to hope for any semblance of an entertaining football game.

Syracuse is coming off its third loss of the season- a 55-13 beat-down by Penn State. In the game, the Orange accumulated only 159 yards of total offense and eight first downs the entire game. They yielded 560 yards on defense and gave up 38 first half points. To make matters worse, running back Delone Carter (one of the lone offensive bright spots on this team) was injured in the game and there is a renewed quarterback controversy between the incumbent Cameron Dantley and Andrew Robinson, who began the season as the starter. What a time to be a Syracuse football fan.

Despite all the misery, the Orange should be able to pull this one out. Northeastern enters the game at 0-2, having lost to 1-A Ball State 48-14. Of course in that game, the Huskies were able to throw for 231 yards. And remember, this is a Syracuse team which has given up an average of 273 yards in the air this season- so don’t count out Northeastern just yet.

The bottom line is that no game featuring the Orange is going to be pretty. But regardless of who starts at quarterback, the Orange will win. Curtis Brinkley has established himself as the number one running back on this team, and his overwhelmed offensive line will be able to open holes for him the only time this season.

This game truly is the “Rumble of the Humble.” Or is it the “Battle of the Beleaguered?” Either way it’s a Syracuse victory.

Syracuse 38 - Northeastern 16

Rutgers Scarlet Knights 0-2 (0-0 Big East) @ Navy Midshipmen 1-2

Saturday, September 20 - 3:30 p.m.

There is no team in the country that has been more disappointing early this season than the Rutgers Scarlet Knights.

This was a team which lost a couple key parts- mainly record setting running back Ray Rice- but was still expected to compete for a conference title. In two games however, they’ve gone from “potential Big East champions,” to “fringe bowl team,” faster than their defensive secondary can give up another big play.

To get their first win of the season, the Scarlet Knights must do so on the road, traveling to Annapolis, MD, to play the Navy Midshipmen.

If Rutgers expects to get into the win column, they will need vastly improved play from quarterback Mike Teel. The fifth-year senior, may be the most underachieving of any Scarlet Knight. Believe it or not, he has actually been worse than his numbers (one touchdown and five interceptions) indicate. Teel has been too long on deep balls, too short on key third down passes, forced too many balls into tight spots, and even when he has completed passes over the middle, his receivers have often been the recipients of big hits.

Not alone in the Rutgers blame game is the defensive secondary. Believed to be the strong suit of this defense, it has been anything but, allowing an average of close to 220 yards per game. Senior safety Courtney Greene was supposed to be a leader for this defense, but instead has been missing in action as opponents receivers continue to get open play after play.

So what’s the remedy for this ailing Rutgers team? How about a team which has given up over 300 yards per game in the air against FBS opponents, and can’t seem to complete any passes of its own.

That is what Rutgers will face at Navy- and the reason they should win this game. Anyone around the Scarlet Knights will admit Teel has been bad, but this is his chance to prove the critics wrong. Just a week ago the Navy defense gave up 317 passing yards to Duke, and the week before 326 to Ball State. If Teel can’t get the job done this week, it might be time to start looking at back-up Jabu Lovelace as a potential replacement.

And as for the Rutgers defense, if they can shut down the run, they should control Navy’s offense.

Even with former coach Paul Johnson now at Georgia Tech, Navy still runs a triple option offense, featuring Shun White the nation’s leader with 197 yards per game. The Midshipmen also return Kaipo-Noa Kaheauku-Enhada, last years starting quarterback who missed most of the first three games with injury. We know Navy wants to run, but they must do so against a Rutgers front seven which has been one of the few bright spots on the entire team.

At this point any win for Rutgers is a good one. White will get his touches and yards for Navy, but besides him, the Midshipmen can’t match up with the Scarlet Knights.

Things took a little longer than expected, but look for Rutgers to get their first win of the season.

Rutgers 34 - Navy 21

#12 South Florida Bulls 3-0 (0-0 Big East) @ FIU Golden Panthers 0-2 (0-0 Sun Belt)

Saturday, September 20- 5 p.m. ESPNU

All eyes were on South Florida a week ago, as they played and won one of the biggest out of conference games of the season: a 38-35 comeback victory over Kansas. The spotlight will again be on the Bulls this week, but for a completely different reason.

South Florida travels this week to Miami to take on Florida International. The game doesn’t register much nationally, but for the Golden Panthers the evening is huge- as they host a nationally ranked team, and open the brand new FIU Stadium.

Even with all the glitz and glamour surrounding this game, it should be a cake-walk for USF. They are playing a team which is last in FBS football in points per game (5.0) and total yards per game (178). A team which has won just once in their last 26 games. And a team which can’t figure out who to play at quarterback.

The bottom line is this: if USF loses this game, it will be college football’s biggest upset since Appalachian State and Michigan a year ago. We can break-down numbers and look at match-ups but both statistically and personnel wise- USF has every advantage.

There will be no let down after the big game against Kansas. South Florida will be 4-0 heading into Big East play.

South Florida 45 - Florida International 12

Miami (OH) Redhawks 1-2 (0-0 MAC) @ Cincinnati Bearcats 1-1 (0-0 Big East)

Saturday, September 20- 7:30 p.m.

Cincinnati was expecting to be down one quarterback this season. But they never would have imagined they’d be down two heading into only their third game of the season against Miami (OH).

It has been reported this week that Dustin Grutza, who replaced last year’s starter Ben Mauk, will be out for the year after breaking his right fibula. Now Tony Pike will step into the starters shoes after barely losing out on the position coming out of camp.

Pike will make his first career start against the Redhawks, which must like the rest of its MAC brethren, like to throw the ball around the field.

Miami quarterback Daniel Raudabaugh comes to Nippert Field, having thrown for close to 2500 yards a year ago, and is averaging 247 through three games this season. His favorite targets to date have been Jamal Rogers who leads the team with 14 catches, and junior Dustin Woods, who’s averaging a staggering 16.2 yards per catch.

Raudabaugh, who’s put up these impressive numbers against the likes of Michigan and Vanderbilt, will face his toughest test of the year however, as Cincinnati’s defensive backfield features All-American Mike Mickens at cornerback.

When the Bearcats have the ball, don’t expect coach Brian Kelly to re-invent the wheel just because Grutza is missing. Look for Pike to do exactly what the man he replaced did- spread the ball to receivers Dominick Goodman and Marshwan “Mardy,” Gilyard. Running back John Goebel should get increased carries as well.

The Redhawks should be a tougher test than most expect. They hung in against Michigan on the road, and lost to a very good Vanderbilt team at home. Miami will not be intimidated by the Bearcats.

But with a week off, Cincinnati should have enough to hold on. Brian Kelly coached teams rarely play down to perceived weaker competition and the Bearcats want to prove the doubters wrong after their big loss at Oklahoma.

Cincinnati wins this battle of Ohio.

Cincinnati 34 - Miami (OH) 20

By Aaron Torres
BigEast-fans.com Staff Writer

More of Aaron's writing at BigEast-fans.com:

• Big East Football 2008: Week #3 recap
• Big East Football 2008: Week #3 preview
• Big East Football 2008: Week #2 recap
• Big East Football 2008: Week #2 preview
• Big East Football 2008: Week #1 recap
• Big East Football 2008: Week #1 preview