Big East Football Week #5 Preview

Just when we thought we had Big East football figured out, Week 4 happened.

Louisville and Pittsburgh won as underdogs. West Virginia and Rutgers lost as favorites. Cincinnati’s quarterback completed over 80 percent of his passes- in his first career start. Syracuse almost lost to an FCS opponent (I guess we shouldn’t be that surprised), South Florida had to hang on against one of the worst teams in FBS- the Florida International Golden Panthers, and UConn needed a come from behind victory to beat Baylor.

Phew.

And as hectic as things were in Week 4, things will only get crazier, as four Big East schools open their conference schedules this weekend. On Friday night UConn travels to Louisville to open conference play, and on Saturday we get to see a “meeting of the minds,” as Dave Wannstedt and the Pittsburgh Panthers travel to the Carrier Dome to take on Greg Robinson and the Syracuse Orangemen (copies of “Coaching Major College Football for Dummies,” will be handed out at the door).

Interesting out-of-conference games will be played as well, as South Florida looks to rebound from their abysmal Saturday performance at NC State, while West Virginia hosts in-state rival Marshall and Cincinnati travels across Ohio to face the Akron Zips. Rutgers, still looking for its first win hosts FCS school Morgan State.

To this week’s picks:

Connecticut Huskies 4-0 (0-0 Big East) @ Louisville Cardinals 2-1 (0-0 Big East)

Friday, September 26- 8 p.m. ESPN2

A very interesting match-up opens Big East conference play as the defending conference co-champion UConn Huskies travel to the Bluegrass State to take on a suddenly steamrolling Louisville Cardinals bunch.

Here’s what we know about the visitors from Connecticut: They’re 4-0, but no one is quite sure what to make of a team that needed overtime to beat Temple, and a fourth quarter rally to beat Baylor. Running back Donald Brown would win the conference’s offensive MVP award if it was handed out today, as he has rushed 179 yards per game.

Meanwhile for the Huskies, quarterback Tyler Lorenzen who was so steady a year ago, has been anything but this year, throwing for only one touchdown, while also throwing six interceptions. UConn’ defense has been phenomenal, giving up only 12.5 points per game. However, this defense, which was tested by the arms and legs of Baylor dual-threat quarterback Robert Griffin a week ago, has yet to face an offense as complete as Louisville’s.

Louisville has been a bit of an enigma as well. In Week 1, the Cardinals were nothing short of atrocious against Kentucky, not scoring an offensive touchdown, and losing 27-2. Starting quarterback Hunter Cantwell had a game he’d like to forget, throwing three interceptions. Since then, both Cantwell and Louisville have been significantly improved, as they’ve gone 2-0, with the quarterback throwing four touchdowns and no interceptions in the two wins. Of course one win was against FCS opponent Tennessee Tech, and the other against a Kansas State team that we really don’t know much about.

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For Louisville, the true difference in their play has been pint-sized running back, Victor Anderson. In Week 1 against Kentucky, the 5’9 Anderson was an afterthought in the Louisville offense, touching the ball only 12 times for 31 yards. Since then however, Anderson has been key for the Cardinals offensive attack, rushing for over nine yards a carry and scoring four touchdowns, including three against Kansas State.

This one really can go either way, but I’m to take the visitors from Connecticut. While I think Brown will be held to his lowest rushing total of the season against the best defense he’s faced, the Huskies will find other ways to score. Coach Randy Edsall has already said that he’d like to get running back Andre Dixon (an All-Big East selection a year ago) more touches as he is finally getting healthy after an ankle injury. Expect true freshman Jordan Todman to get into the action as well.

As for when Louisville has the ball, I don’t expect Anderson to have as big of a game. For starters, UConn is a much surer tackling team than Kansas State. And although it played well a week ago, the musical bodies game that Louisville played a week ago along the offensive line might come back to hurt them this week. Even if George Bussey and Mark Wetterer return to the offensive line from injury, they’re facing an underrated Huskies defensive front which starts three seniors. Cantwell will have a big game, but I have trouble believing that Louisville’s small receivers (Trent Guy and Doug Beaumont are diminutive at about 5’9 each) will be able to create separation against Connecticut’s physical secondary led by senior’s Darius Butler at cornerback and safety Dahna Deleston.

On paper the match-ups appear to be pretty even, and Louisville should have the advantage at home. Although Connecticut is 4-0 they so rarely look good. There are few logical reasons to take the Huskies, but Connecticut is 13-4 since the beginning of 2007 with a Big East co-championship. Logic certainly defies that.

Connecticut 31 - Louisville 26

(** Writers note: Louisville fans, it is seriously time to get over in the “un-fair catch game” from a year ago. We all know that Larry Taylor’s hand signal on the punt return should have been blown dead. But remember also that the Cardinals were up 17-7 with 11 minutes to go. They were lead by a senior quarterback and experience on both sides of the ball. UConn made plays from that point on and Louisville didn’t. Move on.)

Pittsburgh Panthers 2-1 (0-0 Big East) @ Syracuse Orange 1-3 (0-0 Big East)

Saturday, September 27- 12 p.m. ESPN Gameplan

In the other conference game on the schedule, both Pittsburgh and Syracuse enter their Big East opener itching for respect after stumbling out of the gates early.

For the Panthers, they want to finally prove that their history of big game malaise is behind them, after an impressive come from behind victory over Iowa last weekend. Remember that Pittsburgh started the year ranked in the top 25 and with huge expectations, only to fall flat on their face in the season opener against Bowling Green.

As for the home team, the dreary, cold Syracuse winter started early this year, as the Orange have gone 1-3, with their only win over FCS opponent Northeastern a week ago. The final score of 30-21 was bad enough, but the fact that the Orange needed a late game interception and field goal to seal the victory shows just how far this once proud program has fallen.

Pittsburgh comes into the game looking to continue to establish LeSean McCoy at running back. The nation’s leading freshman rusher a year ago has been held under 100 yards in all three games this year. However, his 27 yard run in the fourth quarter showed flashes of the “Shady,” McCoy we saw in 2007. He’ll be running against a defense which has given up at least 30 points to every FBS team it’s faced all year.

Syracuse’s offense on the other hand, appears to have stability for the first time all season. After weeks of back and forth debate, Cameron Dantley has firmly established himself as the starter at quarterback, and running back Curtis Brinkley has been a lone shining star for the Orange offense rushing for over 100 yards in two of his last three games. Although he will split carries with Doug Hogue, Brinkley has also grabbed the number one spot at his position.

If you’re looking for coaching genius and perfectly executed football, you might want to avoid this one. Regardless of what happens on the sidelines, one of these teams has talent and the other doesn’t.

Look for coach Dave Wannstedt to firmly establish the ground game, going to McCoy and junior LaRod-Stephens Howling early and often. Quarterback Bill Stull will be a nice compliment, spreading the ball around to his receivers as if this was an inter-squad scrimmage. And give credit to Pittsburgh’s front seven on defense- Iowa was one of the largest and most physical lines it will face all season. If they could handle the Hawkeyes, they should have a field day against the Orange, and I expect to see them blow up more than their fair share of plays in the backfield.

Take Pittsburgh all the way in this one. They will win big as they prepare for their first true test in Big East play- next week at South Florida.

Pittsburgh 35 - Syracuse 6

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Morgan State Golden Bears 2-1 (0-0 MEAC) @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights 0-3 (0-0 Big East)

The hits just keep coming for Rutgers.

After a 23-21 come-from-behind loss to Navy dropped them to 0-3, things got so bad for the Scarlet Knights that quarterback Mike Teel actually tried to slap teammate Glen Lee after the safety tried to console him.

While the matter was handled internally, it shows how much of a mess Rutgers football has become. Teel has been the ringleader of this dysfunctional bunch, throwing only one touchdown but six interceptions. The last one came at a crucial time for the Scarlet Knights, as they were behind and driving against the Midshipmen- the interception all but ending their chance of victory.

Teel certainly isn’t the only member of this team to blame. For starters, with Ray Rice in the NFL, Rutgers has tried four different players at running back, none establishing themselves from the others, which puts further pressure on the quarterback to make plays. Of course it’s not all the running backs fault, with an offensive line breaking in three new starters unable to open holes.

Defensively, the Scarlet Knights gave up 262 yards rushing a week ago, however the problem has really been in the passing game. A secondary which was expected to be a strong point of the defense has been anything but, as they seem to be continually out of position and appear to be missing assignments. Also, to see a Greg Schiano coached team to tackle as poorly as this defense has, and play without a level of intensity which has been their trademark, has been shocking.

There’s no way to sugarcoat what Rutgers has done through three games. They are 0-3, have played poorly in every aspect of the game and there is no reason to believe improvement is on its way. For the first time in four years, it looks like the Scarlet Knights will not be bowl bound.

I’m 0-3 on the year picking Rutgers. But for their sake more than mine, I hope they prove me wrong as I am picking them again. I’m through trying to analyze what they will do on either side of the ball, because they haven’t been able to do much against anyone. In this game, the Scarlet Knights need to simply get mean and bully Morgan State.

Over the past couple years Rutgers has played with a swagger that has left a bitter taste in a lot of opposing fans mouths. But they’ve also done their fair share of winning.

I don’t know if that confidence left with Ray Rice to the NFL, but if they are to salvage their season, the Scarlet Knights need to get it back.

Rutgers 38 - Morgan State 3

Marshall Thundering Herd 3-1 (2-0 C-USA) @ WVU Mountaineers 1-2 (0-0 Big East)

Saturday September 27- 3:30 p.m. ESPN Gameplan

My how fast the mighty have fallen.

Only nine months after being a game away from playing for the National Championship, the West Virginia Mountaineers have reeled to open the 2008 season, and after three games stand at 1-2.

Against Colorado a week ago, the Mountaineers were a far cry from the well oiled machine that dominated the Big East in 2007. In a 17-14 loss, everything that could go wrong did. Costly penalties, poor clock management, questionable play calling and the inability to convert on third down (3-13 on the night) caused West Virginia to lose a game in which they completely outplayed their opponent.

In Week 5, West Virginia welcomes in-state rival Marshall to town. Who would have thought entering this game that the Thundering Herd, and not the Mountaineers would be the ones with the winning record.

Well they are- standing at 3-1 with the only loss coming against No. 9 Wisconsin on the road. If West Virginia wants to beat the Thundering Herd (and who thought even a few weeks ago that there’d be any question about that) they’ll need to stop a pair of Darius’s- Darius Marshall the teams leading rusher, and Darius Passmore, the Thundering Herd’s best wide receiver.

Offensively, a week ago West Virginia needed to get back to its running game. In this one, the Mountaineers must be able to balance the run with a vertical passing attack.

Against Colorado, quarterback Pat White and running back Noel Devine were able to run successfully, but the Mountaineers offense only threw for 43 yards. That lack of a passing threat is what led to West Virginia’s porous third down conversion rate- Colorado simply stuffed the box on virtually every big play knowing the run would come.

Marshall should be a good opponent to re-invigorate the aerial attack, as they have given up at least 300 yards passing to the three FBS opponents they’ve faced this year.

The bottom line is this: no team in the country that needs a confidence boosting win more than the West Virginia Mountaineers. It was very strange a week ago to see a team that has been so dominant on offense looking so confused. Love him or hate him, the dumb penalties, inability to convert on big plays and general confusion were things that never happened when Rich Rodriguez was on the sidelines.

The Mountaineers should win this game. Against Colorado they were able to shut down a pretty high powered offense on the road, so Marshall should not prove to be as big of a challenge. The question is, will Bill Stewart open his playbook? He has the weapons in Jock Sanders, Dorrell Jalloh and Bradley Starks at the wide receiver position to make defenses pay for stuffing the box. This in turn should logically open up the running lanes for Devine and White as well.

With a more balanced offense, West Virginia is still a Big East contender. If they’re to be taken for real, the road to redemption starts this week.

West Virginia 31 - Marshall 21

Cincinnati Bearcats 2-1 (0-0 Big East) @ Akron Zips 2-2 (0-1 MAC)

Saturday, September 27- 3:30 p.m. ESPN Gameplan

Give Brian Kelly and the Cincinnati Bearcats credit: it doesn’t seem to matter who they plug in at quarterback, the scoreboard keeps lighting up.

With record setting quarterback Ben Mauk graduating after last season, this offense was supposed to slow down. Not so fast my friends. Dustin Grutza managed the spread offense well until going down in Week 2 with an injury.

Enter stage right Tony Pike. Grutza’s replacement- who’d never started a game before Saturday- looked like a seasoned veteran- completing 20 of 24 passes for 241 yards and three touchdowns. The high-powered aerial attack never missed a beat as the Bearcats beat in-state rival Miami (OH) 45-20.

In Week 5, Cincinnati hits the road, as the Bearcats travel to Akron, to face a Zips team that likes throwing the ball around as much as they do.

Let’s make sure to put out a disclaimer for this game: if you like low scoring, grind-it-out, three yards and a cloud of dust football, you’d probably best skip this one. But if you like athletic receivers running all over the field and big armed quarterbacks, you’ll want to tune in.

For Akron, it all starts and ends with quarterback Chris Jacquemain. The junior has already thrown for close to 1000 yards and seven touchdowns, completing close to 60 percent of his passes along the way. If the Bearcats want a scouting report on Jacquemain, all they need to do is ask their Big East counterpart- the Syracuse Orange.

In Week 2, Jacquemain ripped apart the Syracuse secondary, completing 76 percent of his passes for 226 yards and three touchdowns. The underdog Zips went on to win by two touchdowns at the Carrier Dome. Of course the Orange don’t have a secondary nearly as talented as Cincinnati’s either. Bearcats cornerback Mike Mickens is as good as any in college football, and a week ago returned an interception 72 yards for a touchdown.

Brian Kelly just does not get the credit he deserves at Cincinnati. It seems no matter the turmoil, his teams always are disciplined and play hard. Even with Big East play right around the corner, the Bearcats will not overlook Akron.

Jacquemain will get his numbers, but so will Pike. Cincinnati has more weapons on offense, and more talent on defense.

Cincinnati 38 - Akron 21

#13 South Florida Bulls 4-0 (0-0 Big East) @ North Carolina State Wolfpack 2-2 (0-1 ACC)

Saturday, September 27- 7:30 p.m. ESPNU

There’s an old adage in sports. It goes something like, “win pretty, win ugly, just win baby!” South Florida coach Jim Leavitt must be thinking that heading into the Bulls last out-of-conference game of the season, at NC State.

A week ago the Bulls were riding high, coming off an emotionally charged victory against Kansas. The letdown that was expected showed in a big way, as South Florida had to hold on in a 17-9 victory at Florida International- likely the worst team in FBS football.

If the Bulls decide to have a letdown this week, escaping with a victory won’t be as easy. In Week 5, South Florida travels to North Carolina State, where the Wolfpack stand at 2-2, but are coming off their biggest win in years.

Just last week North Carolina State shocked everyone’s favorite mid-major darling, beating the East Carolina Pirates 30-24 in overtime. Coach Tom O’Brien appears to have turned a corner in his second year with the Wolfpack and expect his team to be ready to go as a second straight ranked opponent visits Raleigh.

For NC State to win this one however, they’ll have to do it without the services of starting quarterback Russell Wilson. The red-shirt freshman, who has been so impressive for the Wolfpack suffered an injury to his right shoulder against East Carolina, and O’Brien announced earlier this week that he will not play. The quarterbacking duties now fall in the hands of Harrison Beck. Although he has taken snaps in all four games this season, Beck’s performance has been spotty at best. He’s thrown two touchdowns and three interceptions, and although he got a win against William & Mary, it was a tight 34-24 against a team the Wolfpack should have handled easily.

It would be easy to look past North Carolina State, but don’t. The Bulls already have two uninspired victories this season ( Central Florida in Week 2 and FIU last week) and have a history of not being focused for every game. Expect a little bit of malaise from South Florida in this one, as they know they won’t have to worry about Wilson, NC State’s best offensive weapon.

If Wilson were playing this week I’d actually take the Wolfpack. But he isn’t expected to, and fortunately for South Florida, Beck has a history of struggling- against anyone and everyone. The Bulls will be flat, but Beck will do just enough to add another come from behind loss to his resume.

South Florida will be 5-0 heading into conference play.

South Florida 24 - NC State 20

By Aaron Torres
BigEast-fans.com Staff Writer

More of Aaron's writing at BigEast-fans.com:

• Big East Football 2008: Week #4 recap
• Big East Football 2008: Week #4 preview
• Big East Football 2008: Week #3 recap
• Big East Football 2008: Week #3 preview
• Big East Football 2008: Week #2 recap
• Big East Football 2008: Week #2 preview
• Big East Football 2008: Week #1 recap
• Big East Football 2008: Week #1 preview