Big East Football Week #8 Preview

With every team in the Big East either at or past the halfway point in their season, it is safe to say we know as little about how this conference will shake out as we did before Week 1.

The league favorite, West Virginia, sits atop the Big East standings at 2-0, but has hardly looked like the dominant Mountaineers squads we’ve grown used to, beating Syracuse and Rutgers- the conferences two worst teams- at home. Their schedule gets much tougher in the coming weeks as they host Auburn and then must travel to UConn.

West Virginia is joined at the top by their bitter rivals- the Pittsburgh Panthers- who after struggling in their season opener, have won their last five games- including the biggest conference game of the year to date- a victory at South Florida.

The Bulls are 0-1 in conference, but still have arguably the league’s most talented team. Louisville is also 0-1, but have enough weapons on offense to beat anyone in this conference.

Connecticut and Cincinnati are both 1-0 in conference and 5-1 overall, but are entering the heart of Big East play with uncertain quarterbacking situations.

Finally, Syracuse, a regular tenant of the Big East basement, has been joined Rutgers- a program that has been to three straight bowl games, but have fallen off the college football map after a 1-5 start. Both teams sit at 0-2 as they continue to race to the bottom of the Big East standings.

With that said, this league is as wide open as ever. With no absolutely dominant team, every Big East squad has to believe that they can take the conference crown and earn a BCS bowl bid.

Six Big East teams are in action this week, including two conference games, with two more teams stepping out of league play to take on their final out of conference opponent of the season.

As the weather gets colder, each game gets more important week-to-week.

To the picks:

(*** For the record, Big East Fans picks were 3-0 last week, to improve selections on the season to 31-9).

Connecticut Huskies (5-1, 1-0 Big East) @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights (1-5, 0-1 Big East)

Saturday October 18 - 12:00 p.m. ESPNU

Over the past few seasons, Rutgers and UConn has become one of the Big East’s more underrated rivalries.

Neither fan base seems to care an awful lot for each other off the field, while on it, both teams engage in a hard hitting, physical battle year in and year out. In 2008, these two programs are headed in completely different directions- one trying to validate their season, the other trying to save it.

Despite being 5-1 in the halfway point in the season, the visitors from Connecticut still have questions that need to be answered. First and foremost, how far can Zach Frazer take them?

Frazer, a sophomore transfer from Notre Dame, has more natural God-given talent than the man he replaced - the injured Tyler Lorenzen - but nowhere near the game experience. In his first career start two weeks ago at North Carolina, the Pennsylvania native was shaky, throwing three interceptions- including one ill-advised pass as he was getting sacked, which was returned for a touchdown. UConn is favored in this game, but needs steady play from Frazer to compliment Donald Brown - the Big East’s best running back, and nation’s leading rusher, to win.

As for Rutgers, it has been a season to forget in Scarlet nation. For a team coming off three consecutive winning campaigns and was a fringe top 25 team entering the season, no one could have expected this. Rutgers stands at 1-5, with the only win coming against FCS opponent Morgan State at home. There is no way to sugarcoat things in New Brunswick- the Scarlet Knights have been bad- but if they could somehow spring the upset on the Huskies, it would make their season.

To their credit, Rutgers has shown signs of improvement in recent weeks- losing close games at West Virginia and Cincinnati. However, when the big play is needed down the stretch, Rutgers just can’t seem to convert. Whether balls are overthrown, under thrown or just dropped, quarterback Mike Teel just can’t seem to get on the same page as his receivers. His completion percentage is just over 50 percent on the year, and has thrown just three touchdown passes in six games.

Although it’d be easy to look at these two teams records and assume a blowout, don’t. This game will be back and forth, as the Scarlet Knights return home for a real test for the first time since the second game of the year (taking out the Morgan State game). Rutgers fans know that this game might be the final nail in the coffin of their season, so expect them to be out in full-force, making this a difficult environment to play.

On the field, Frazer will continue to take his lumps, but much like the rest of his injured team, I think being idle last week will help. The time off gave him a chance to absorb everything he did wrong- and there were some major mistakes in his first career start- and improve on them.

Coach Randy Edsall learned from the North Carolina loss, so don’t expect him to put too much on the shoulders of his young quarterback. Look for the offensive game-plan to include getting the ball out of Frazer’s hands quickly, so he won’t have to think too much, allowing him to get into a rhythm. And we know we’ll see a healthy dose of running back Donald Brown. The red-shirt junior has carried the ball over 30 times in the last three games. Nothing will change this week.

I expect the Scarlet Knights to be able to contain Brown for a good part of game, but it will be the threat of Frazer passing which will open up the UConn running attack. Rutgers has improved immensely on defense, but they haven’t seen an offensive line as physical as the one they’ll see from UConn this weekend. And with the Scarlet Knights offense playing as poorly as it has, the pressure is only intensified on the defensive unit.

Again, the experts will all take the Huskies in a blow out, but throw the records out, this will be a tight one. We will see Frazer grow in his second start, and the Huskies will become bowl eligible for the second year in a row. Rutgers has improved over the last few weeks, but what have we seen from this offense that makes us believe they can win this one?

UConn 31 - Rutgers 26

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Syracuse Orange (1-5, 0-2 Big East) @ South Florida Bulls (5-1, 0-1 Big East)

Saturday, October 18- 12:00 p.m. ESPN Gameplan

The South Florida Bulls are another team that received a week off at the perfect time.

Coming off their loss to Pittsburgh on October 2, the Bulls were beat up both emotionally and physically- as they not only suffered their first defeat of the year, but had several players less than 100 percent. Linebacker Brouce Mompremier and defensive end George Selvie appear ready to go this weekend, as South Florida looks to bounce back against Syracuse.

We all know that this season hasn’t lived up the expectations of the Syracuse faithful. This once proud program has fallen as far as any in college football, and it is clear that this is Greg Robinson’s last season on the sidelines. Despite all the controversy swirling around this team, the players have responded admirably, by putting up two stellar performances- leading Pittsburgh for three quarters before falling at home, and losing on the road at West Virginia in a game much closer than many expected. The final score was 17-6, but it was only after a late Noel Devine run sealed the victory.

The interesting match-up in this game will be the front seven of the Bulls against the running game of the Syracuse Orange. With Cameron Dantley at quarterback for Syracuse, there is finally the threat of a vertical passing game, which in turn has opened up running lanes for senior Curtis Brinkley. He has responded by rushing for over 100 yards three straight games- including 144 in the loss last week to West Virginia. As one of the lone bright spots for the Syracuse offense, he has averaged close to 5.5 yards per carry.

For South Florida, the return of a healthy Selvie and Mompremier, will put added pressure on the Syracuse offense. On the first series against Pittsburgh two weeks ago, the South Florida front seven looked phenomenal- but was unable to get much penetration after that. It led to Pittsburgh pounding out 228 yards on the ground, eating up large chunks of clock, and sealing the victory. If Syracuse wants any chance at staying in this game, they’ll need to implement the same game plan.

With a week off and a chance to look into the mirror, this is the perfect bounce back game for South Florida. This is a team that in years past has let seasons slip away, and this will be a good game for them to re-assert themselves, and let the rest of the Big East know that the Bulls are still the alpha-dog of this conference.

Offensively, South Florida will have no problem moving the ball against Syracuse, as Matt Grothe will play pitch and catch with his receivers, and Mike Ford- who was impressive in the Pittsburgh loss- will run hard, and often. Brinkley will get his yardage for the Orange, but this is a stout defense which is hungry to prove that what Pittsburgh did against them was a mirage- not a trend.

The question with South Florida was never about their talent, but whether they’d show up week in and week out. While that remains to be seen, it won’t be in question in this one. Syracuse will spring an upset by the end of the year, it just won’t be this weekend.

South Florida 31 - Syracuse 13

Pittsburgh Panthers (5-1, 2-0 Big East) @ Navy Midshipmen (4-2)

Saturday October 18- 3:30 p.m.

Although their season hasn’t gone quite as scripted, the Pittsburgh Panthers are right where they want to be- in the top 25 and atop the Big East standings.

After losing their opening game of the season, Pittsburgh has responded admirably- winning their last five games. Their biggest win was the most recent- a 26-21 victory at South Florida two weeks ago. To improve to 6-1, the Panthers will have to step out of conference and play the Navy Midshipmen- a team that has been a thorn in the side of both the Big East, and more importantly Pittsburgh.

With a string of several successful seasons under their belt, no one considers Navy a middle of pack team anymore. In the past two years, the wins speak for themselves- last November they won at Notre Dame, and this season they’ve already beaten the ranked Wake Forest Deamon Deacons on the road and defeated Rutgers at home. Oh, and don’t forget that 48-45 double overtime win they had in mid-October last year. The team they defeated? The Pittsburgh Panthers.

Revenge will certainly play a part in the mindset of the Pittsburgh Panthers, but this is a different team than a year ago. They are more experienced and confident than the young bunch that hosted Navy in 2007. Quarterback Bill Stull is finally comfortable in the pocket, and the Panthers continue to pound the ball at their opponents, with LeSean McCoy doing most of the heavy lifting. The sophomore has returned to his form from a year ago, as he saved his best performances for the last two weeks- rushing for 149 yards at Syracuse, and 142 at South Florida. The Midshipmen will see McCoy early and often on Saturday.

On defense the Panthers will have to deal with the always frustrating Navy triple-option offense. Because no one runs it anymore, it is virtually impossible to prepare for. No scout team can run it nearly as efficiently as the Midshipmen do. Adding to the mystery, no one is quite sure who will be under center for Navy. Last years starter Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada hasn’t played much in 2008 because of lingering injuries. In his place, Jarod Bryant started last week for the Midshipmen- leading them to a victory at Air Force.

Regardless of who starts at quarterback for Navy, expect them to suffer a loss at home. Although they won a week ago, their defense gave up over 400 yards to Air Force, including 227 on the ground. This plays right into the hands of Pittsburgh, which wants to pound the ball all day long- keeping the chains and clock moving. Although Navy’s offense is tough to defend, I think the Panthers will be up to the task. The game isn’t a nationally televised contest, or against a top flight opponent, but the Panthers seem to have a renewed sense of confidence- nothing making this more evident than the South Florida win. This team appears for the first time to believe in itself, and after the season opening loss isn’t taking anyone for granted.

The Panthers are talented and confident. It is time for the rest of the Big East to start getting concerned.

Pittsburgh 28 - Navy 20

Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders (2-4, 1-3 Sun Belt) @ Louisville Cardinals (3-2, 0-1 Big East)

Saturday October 18- 3:30 p.m. ESPN Gameplan

In regard to last weekend’s 35-28 Louisville win at Memphis: it doesn’t matter whether you win pretty or win ugly, just as long as you get the victory.

That was definitely the case last Friday night, as the Cardinals were out-gained on offense, had half as many first downs as their opponent and converted only 3 of 13 third downs- but still escaped with a victory. The Cardinals capitalized on Memphis’ mistakes, returning a kickoff, blocked field goal and fumble all for touchdown scores.

This week Louisville looks to improve to 4-2 when they host the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders.

The name Middle Tennessee State may not resonate nationally, and their 2-3 record isn’t sparkling, but the Blue Raiders can play. In Week 2, Maryland was shocked by Middle Tennessee State, as they beat the Terrapins 24-14. It was only a week later that MTSU almost pulled off an equally staggering upset, before ultimately falling 20-14 at Kentucky. That was the same Kentucky team that held Louisville without an offensive point just two weeks prior.

Luckily for the Cardinals, one of MTSU weaknesses is also one of the Cardinals strengths. The Blue Raiders have given up at least 200 yards passing in each of their last five games, which plays right into Louisville’s offensive game plan. Quarterback Hunter Cantwell is a fifth-year senior with an NFL future and has already thrown for over 1000 yards this season. He is still overcoming a nagging ankle injury suffered against UConn on September 26, and had one of the worst starts of his career a week ago. Louisville also returned Trent Guy to their receiving core last week after he missed the first four games of the season. Add in a potent running game featuring three backs- Victor Anderson, Bilal Powell and Brock Bolen- and I expect Louisville to get back on track offensively.

As for the Louisville defense- it was surprisingly in-efficient at Memphis. The usually stout unit surrendered 481 total yards and 351 through the air. This week, Louisville should expect to see both Joe Craddock (1369 yards and seven touchdowns) as well as Dwight Dasher at quarterback. Dasher replaced Craddock last week after the senior threw two interceptions.

Louisville should and will win this game. It wasn’t pretty against Memphis, but Steve Kragthorpe and the rest of this team will take a road win, no matter how it comes. Back at home, look for Cantwell to get his yardage, and the three-headed running back monster to rear its head. The Cardinals will jump headfirst into Big East play, coming off a nice win.

By Aaron Torres
BigEast-fans.com Staff Writer