The Big East used to exclude the bottom four teams from its postseason pageant, but after changing things up last season, the league now invites everyone to Madison Square Garden for five days of big-city hoops in New York. The 16-team super conference is virtually assured of getting eight members into the NCAA Tournament. The drama surrounding this particular Big East Tournament concerns the ability of bubble teams - Seton Hall, South Florida, and perhaps Connecticut - to make some noise and potentially punch an NCAA ticket.
By all reasonable and logical standards, all three Big East "bubblers" should be thinking about the NIT at this point, but after a wacky weekend in which so many other teams stumbled, the worst bubble in the history of the NCAA Tournament since the event's expansion (to 64 teams) in 1985 has kept many so-so squads in the running for an at-large invite. This writer wrote off Seton Hall and South Florida weeks ago, but with the likes of Rhode Island, Mississippi State, Dayton, Illinois, Minnesota, Charlotte, and UAB spiraling downward at an unexpectedly rapid pace, the Pirates and Bulls are back in the running for an at-large bid. Yeah, it's been that kind of a year in college basketball.
With five days of hoops at this event - with the first three days having four games each - there's an extra large dose of action to digest at the Garden. The overstuffed portions of tournament pressure mean that there are several different storylines to watch in the Big Apple.
TUESDAY OUTLOOK - FIRST ROUND
On Tuesday, the first round will either weed out pretenders or keep some faint NCAA at-large hopes alive. South Florida opens the whole tournament with a game against last-place (that's 16th-place) DePaul, but before the Bulls get too cocky, they need to remember that DePaul came to New York last year and pulled off the 16-9 upset against Cincinnati. The second game on Tuesday pits Connecticut, seeded 12th - no, that's not a misprint - against the hometown St. John's Red Storm. UConn must win at least four games at this tournament to have any shot at an at-large bid. Such a dire situation exists because the Huskies - a Final Four team last year - have absorbed 14 losses and finished with a 7-11 league record in the regular season.
In the night session on Tuesday, Seton Hall, the 10 seed, will begin its big adventure against 15th-seeded Providence. The Hall needs at least two wins in New York to have any realistic shot at an NCAA Tournament bid, and very likely three. The nightcap on Tuesday is the day's least significant contest, as Cincinnati - kicked to the curb in each of its past three games against elite Big East competition - faces Rutgers in the 11-14 seed matchup. Cincinnati must win the tournament in order to make the NCAAs.
WEDNESDAY OUTLOOK - SECOND ROUND
Wednesday's second round figures to be quite intriguing, due to all the bubble implications of various matchups. Should South Florida advance past DePaul, the Bulls would open the Wednesday slate by going up against eighth-seeded Georgetown. USF ambushed the Hoyas in Washington, D.C., earlier this season, so the New York audience will be interested to see how GU responds in a revenge game. USF, like Seton Hall, has to win at least three games in order to feel good about its NCAA chances. The catch, of course, is that if USF does win three games, it will mean that the Bulls will have beaten not only Georgetown in the second round, but also Syracuse in the quarterfinals.
But we're getting ahead of ourselves. Keeping with the Wednesday schedule, the next second-round tilt on Wednesday afternoon involves the fifth seed - Marquette - going up against the UConn-St. John's winner. If UConn is the opponent, Marquette could bump up its NCAA Tournament seeding slot with a victory. If St. John's is the opponent, some bubble observers will say that Marquette could be in trouble if it should lose to the Red Storm. Those comments aren't likely to be validated in the real world, but you'll hear some chatter if that scenario does in fact emerge.
In the night session on Wednesday, the action begins with seventh-seeded Notre Dame taking on the Seton Hall-Providence winner. If Seton Hall is the opponent, the Irish could lose and not have the slightest bit of worry on Selection Sunday, given the fact that Seton Hall is a decent team. However, if Providence is the opponent and the Irish get foiled by coach Keno Davis's Friars, there might be some talk about Notre Dame being back on the bubble in advance of the NCAA Tournament Selection Show. Remember that Notre Dame had no high-quality wins in its nonconference slate, plus losses to Northwestern and Loyola Marymount. The Irish's resume would look a lot worse if Providence knocked off Mike Brey's bunch.
The final game on Wednesday places sixth-seeded Louisville against the Rutgers-Cincinnati winner. Louisville has to feel safe in terms of the NCAAs after sweeping mighty Syracuse. However, if Rutgers upsets Cincinnati and then beats Louisville in the second round, the Cards' seeding in the Big Dance would take a significant hit. UL is playing to avoid a No. 12 seed in the NCAA Tournament in this Big East bash.
On Thursday, the action heats up. Because of the presence of 16 teams in the league, the Big East has had to create layers of byes in this tournament. Teams in the top eight received a first-round bye but had to show up for the second round. Teams in the top four earned a coveted double-bye and extended rest until the quarterfinals. Therefore, two days into the tournament, the Madison Square Garden crowd will get its very first look at the big hitters in the league.
The first game is a contest referred to earlier, as the winner of a likely (but not guaranteed) South Florida-Georgetown matchup takes on Syracuse. South Florida would be playing for its NCAA existence, while the Hoyas - who stubbed their toe on many occasions in the month of February - could use a big seeding boost with an upset of the Orange.
The second game on Thursday introduces fourth-seeded Villanova to this Garden party. A potential matchup with Marquette figures to be close; VU beat the Golden Eagles twice this season, but by a total of just four points. A Nova-UConn clash would have The World's Most Famous Arena filled to capacity and rocking from start to finish.
In the night session on Thursday, the second-seeded Pittsburgh Panthers would take the floor against Notre Dame, Seton Hall, or Providence. If Seton Hall makes it this far, the Pirates could potentially punch a ticket by dumping coach Jamie Dixon's overachieving squad. Pitt has exceeded all expectations in 2010, which is why this tournament feels like a trap for the Sons of the Steel City. The bottom half of the Big East bracket feels like an upset explosion waiting to happen.
In the last quarterfinal, the third-seeded West Virginia Mountaineers would finally take to the court against Louisville, Rutgers or Cincinnati. The matchup hoops fans clearly want to see is a battle between WVU coach Bob Huggins and Louisville boss Rick Pitino. The late 9:30 p.m. tip-off would not deter fans from getting very involved in this regional collision between schools that aren't far apart on the map.
FRIDAY OUTLOOK - SEMIFINALS
The first semifinal occurs in the Syracuse-Villanova section, the top half of the bracket. The second semi involves the Pittsburgh-West Virginia section or the bottom half of the Big East bracket. If Seton Hall or South Florida get this far, they'd both be likely to make the NCAA Tournament, but a win here would turn them into stone-cold locks.
In terms of other potential semifinal storylines, Villanova would be playing for a No. 2 seed in this round. A win over Syracuse would certainly cement that, but a win over a lower-seeded opponent would likely do the trick as well. If UConn reached this round, a win would be a must - not merely an optional matter.
West Virginia would be playing to stay alive in the race for the No. 1 seed in the West Region. The Mountaineers beat Ohio State - another contender for the fourth and last No. 1 seed - so if they can get through the semifinals, the men from Morgantown could apply pressure on the Buckeyes and the Duke Blue Devils, another competitor in the chase for that prized position.
SATURDAY OUTLOOK - FINAL
Syracuse is a lock for a No. 1 seed in the NCAAs, but with a championship in New York, the Orange could gain the No. 1 overall seed for the Big Dance, provided that Kansas stumbles in the Big 12 Tournament in Kansas City. West Virginia could get the No. 1 seed in the West Region with a win on Saturday, and Villanova - while perhaps not getting a No. 1 seed in the West - could gain the important achievement of snagging the No. 2 seed in the West behind Ohio State or Duke. The No. 2 seed in the West has value because it would keep a team away from Kansas, Syracuse or Kentucky until the Final Four.